Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann at the New America Foundation have released what appears to be the most comprehensive analysis of the U.S. policy of UAV drone strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban operatives in Pakistan to-date. The highlights:
Bergen and Tiedemann estimate that approximately one out of every three fatalities caused by drone strikes is civilian. Their estimate, like most other sources, is based on “reliable news media reports.” In contrast, the Pakistani Government has alleged a civilian fatality rate as high as 98% while other sources, like the Long War Journal, suggest figures as low as 10%. The morality and legality of the drone strike policy hinges on the veracity of these conflicting estimates.
The pace of drone strikes continues to increase. A total of 58 strikes were launched in Pakistan in 2009 and 18 have been launched this year thru Feb. 24.
Tactically, the U.S. Government has clearly assessed that drone strikes are effective at disrupting al-Qaeda and Taliban operations. However, Bergen and Tiedemann dispute this assessment with a number of observations:
- al-Qaeda continues to train Western recruits in Pakistani camps
- Taliban operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan continue
- Drone strikes have lost the element of surprise
- The U.S. loses valuable intelligence by killing rather than capturing terrorist and insurgent leaders
Bergen and Tiedemann conclude, like many COIN experts before them, that the drone campaign may be a tactical success belying a strategic failure. Kilcullen and Exum made precisely this claim in an op-ed some months ago. They argued that the U.S. preoccupation with killing terrorist leaders both distracts from and undercuts what should be the core American mission in Pakistan – reducing Taliban and al-Qaeda success at intimidating the Pakistani populace into submission.
However, most analysts, Bergen and Tiedemann included, believe that drone strikes will continue unabated in the near-term. The tentative signs of convergence between American and Pakistani interests in countering the Taliban only make this more likely.
The Harvard National Security Journal, an organization I work with, will be hosting a symposium on this very topic later this week: http://www.harvardnsj.com/symposium/.
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